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Thread: Breakthrough: life expectancy of untreated HIV-positives

  1. #1

    Default Breakthrough: life expectancy of untreated HIV-positives

    Dutch cohort study from 2010 confirms that seropositives who were healthy at the time of their diagnoses (asymptomatic) and refused treatment have a life expectancy equivalent to that of the normal population!!!

    So one wonders what HIV tests are really "diagnosing" in asymptomatic people...

    ... and one wonders, too, what the life expectancy of those who accepted treatment is/was

    Life expectancy of recently diagnosed asymptomatic HIV-infected patients approaches that of uninfected individuals

    Abstract

    Objective: To compare life expectancies between recently diagnosed HIV-infected patients and age and sex-matched uninfected individuals from the general population.

    Design: National observational HIV cohort in the Netherlands.

    Methods: Four thousand, six hundred and twelve patients diagnosed with HIV between 1998 and 2007 and still antiretroviral therapy-naive as of 24 weeks after diagnosis were selected. Progression to death compared to the age and sex-matched general population was studied with a multivariate hazards model in 4174 (90.5%) patients without AIDS events at 24 weeks. Life expectancy and number of life years lost were calculated using the predicted survival distribution.

    Results: During 17 580 person-years of follow-up since 24 weeks after diagnosis [median follow-up 3.3 years, interquartile range (IQR) 1.6–5.8], 118 deaths occurred, yielding a mortality rate of 6.7 [95% confidence interval (CI) 5.5–8.0] per 1000 person-years. Median CD4 cell counts at 24 weeks were 480 cells/μl (IQR 360–650). According to the model, the median number of years lived from age 25 was 52.7 (IQR 44.2–59.3; general population 53.1) for men and 57.8 (49.2–63.7; 58.1) for women without CDC-B event. The number of life years lost varied between 0.4 if diagnosed with HIV at age 25 and 1.4 if diagnosed at age 55; for patients with a CDC-B event this range was 1.8–8.0 years.

    Conclusion: The life expectancy of asymptomatic HIV-infected patients who are still treatment-naive and have not experienced a CDC-B or C event at 24 weeks after diagnosis approaches that of non-infected individuals. However, follow-up time is short compared to the expected number of years lived.


    (*) Jargon for "untreated".

  2. #2
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    Default Re: Breakthrough: life expectancy of untreated HIV-positives

    HERE-YE!

    Kinda substantiates a top well known dissident train of thought:

    That the number ONE COMMON DENOMINATOR for heath and longevity (LTNP status) is to never-ever follow clinical protocol and take anti-HIV medicines, pills or cocktails.

    Actually there's earlier substantiation of this fact from:


    What do healthy long-term HIV+ people* have in common?
    *"long term survivors" or "non progressors" -- Compiled by Bill Wells, 1-11-97 (HEAL Portland)

    To read this article: go to Heal Toronto and from the pull down menu: It's in "Surviving and Thriving"

    But, there's more -->

    I always espouse an add-on theory of my own, which is;

    I
    t's not enough to only reject antiretrovirals. One must do there very best to exit the AIDS zone--the religion and societal pressure as to what's right and what's wrong. (This includes much of what western medicine teaches us). This is much tougher even for many a diagnosed dissenter/questioner, but is equally important if not paramount.

  3. #3

    Default Re: Breakthrough: life expectancy of untreated HIV-positives

    We've had thirty years to figure out if there was any use for Robert Gallo's test, and I've been willing to throw it in the trash for at least fifteen of those years.

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    Default Re: Breakthrough: life expectancy of untreated HIV-positives

    Actually, the headline of this thread might be a bit misleading. The study isn't about untreated HIV-positives, it's about HIV-positives who were treatment-naive at 24 weeks.

    Treatment with cART after 24 weeks was not explicitly modelled. Thus, the model compares the average effect of clinical care on mortality between HIV-infected individuals and the general population.
    It would be useful to know how many went on treatment after entry into the study and how many remained treatment-naive, and to have mortality data on both groups. However, this was not part of the study design, so it is impossible to determine what effect, if any, might be due to treatment or non-treatment.


    ----
    --- Gos
    --- http://nerosopeningact.bandcamp.com
    It is NOT denial to look Chicken Little right in his beady little eyes and say, "That was an acorn, you idiot!"

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    Default Re: Breakthrough: life expectancy of untreated HIV-positives

    We should probably be a lot more careful about such things. We get accused of cherry-picking enough as it is, and when one of us cherry-picks an article and everyone else jumps on the bandwagon with little or no investigation of the claim, it doesn't help our case.

    Let's leave the cherry-picking to the orthodoxy, shall we?

    ----
    --- Gos
    --- http://nerosopeningact.bandcamp.com
    It is NOT denial to look Chicken Little right in his beady little eyes and say, "That was an acorn, you idiot!"

  6. #6

    Default Re: Breakthrough: life expectancy of untreated HIV-positives

    Quote Originally Posted by Brian Carter View Post
    I[/SIZE]t's not enough to only reject antiretrovirals. One must do there very best to exit the AIDS zone--the religion and societal pressure as to what's right and what's wrong. (This includes much of what western medicine teaches us). This is much tougher even for many a diagnosed dissenter/questioner, but is equally important if not paramount.
    In my case, I have followed that approach and it has worked wonderfully for me. It's gotten ugly at times - pressure from friends, family, and my own occasional second guessing, but all in all I'd say I'm glad I have remained steadfast in rejecting all that the paradigm has to offer. I truly believe that doing so has saved my life and vastly improved quality of life as well.

    Quote Originally Posted by Brian Carter View Post
    That the number ONE COMMON DENOMINATOR for heath and longevity (LTNP status) is to never-ever follow clinical protocol and take anti-HIV medicines, pills or cocktails.
    YES and double YES!
    Last edited by G Man; September 15th, 2011 at 05:26 AM.
    I do not deny that many people have died of something that resembles what they call 'AIDS'. The thing I deny is that HIV was the cause.

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    Default Re: Breakthrough: life expectancy of untreated HIV-positives

    Quote Originally Posted by G Man View Post
    I have remained steadfast in rejecting all that the paradigm has to offer.
    Yea G... We're missing out on those meal tickets, free this free that. Oh, crap where did we go wrong? I want my handicap sticker.

    Gos,
    I see the 24 week issue, but it still says what it says...
    The life expectancy of asymptomatic HIV-infected patients who are still treatment-naive and have not experienced a CDC-B or C event at 24 weeks after diagnosis approaches that of non-infected individuals.

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    Default Re: Breakthrough: life expectancy of untreated HIV-positives

    Quote Originally Posted by Brian Carter View Post
    Gos,
    I see the 24 week issue, but it still says what it says...
    The life expectancy of asymptomatic HIV-infected patients who are still treatment-naive and have not experienced a CDC-B or C event at 24 weeks after diagnosis approaches that of non-infected individuals.

    Yes, you're right. It says what it says.

    And like wise, it doesn't say what it doesn't say:

    The life expectancy of asymptomatic HIV-infected patients who are still treatment-naive and have not experienced a CDC-B or C event at 24 weeks after diagnosis approaches that of non-infected individuals.


    This study says nothing about whether any of these individuals went on meds after 24 months. Nothing!

    This study is pure bullshit. It's one of the most poorly-designed studies I've ever seen. It was specifically designed to leave no way for a reader to compare treated vs. untreated individuals. The intent is plainly to allow the orthodoxy to cherry-pick the information in order to infer that medication allows HIV-positives to live nearly as long as people who don't have HIV, when the data simply isn't there to reach such a conclusion.

    It is pure foolishness for us to take such a study and cherry-pick the information presented in order to reach the conclusion that unmedicated HIV-positives will live as long as HIV-negatives. The data simply isn't there for us to reach such a conclusion.

    And I want to be clear that I'm not saying that it isn't true that unmedicated HIV-positives can live as long as HIV-negatives; what I'm saying is that we would be stupid to read that into it, given the fact that the data presented is simply insufficient to reach such a conclusion.

    -----
    --- Gos
    --- http://nerosopeningact.bandcamp.com
    It is NOT denial to look Chicken Little right in his beady little eyes and say, "That was an acorn, you idiot!"

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    Default Re: Breakthrough: life expectancy of untreated HIV-positives

    I also don't see where the number of study participants who did experience a CDC-B or C event are reported.

    B category events might be dismissed by dissidents, but C category represents real illnesses and disease. If these people were not taken out of the equation, you would not have a perfectly healthy group of people.

    Gos is correct, you can't just read the parts that support your own worldview.

    There's plenty of good news and supportive evidence here, without drawing conclusions that are not scientifically supported.

    Quote Originally Posted by Brian Carter View Post

    Gos,
    I see the 24 week issue, but it still says what it says...
    The life expectancy of asymptomatic HIV-infected patients who are still treatment-naive and have not experienced a CDC-B or C event at 24 weeks after diagnosis approaches that of non-infected individuals.

  10. #10

    Default Re: Breakthrough: life expectancy of untreated HIV-positives

    Quote Originally Posted by Gos View Post
    Actually, the headline of this thread might be a bit misleading. The study isn't about untreated HIV-positives, it's about HIV-positives who were treatment-naive at 24 weeks.-
    Not really... on Table 1 you see that out 4,612 patients only 2,669 ever started therapy after 24 weeks.

    That leaves us with 1,943 (42%) that never had any therapy at all since their diagnosis till the end of the study.

    It also acknowledges what the orthodoxy has recognised in test inserts: "The chances of an asymptomatic positive person developing AIDS is not known".

    Let's not forget that most people are diagnosed while healthy, so the group of healthy pre-treatment seropositive is representative of most.
    Last edited by Kreosol; September 15th, 2011 at 10:39 AM.

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